Saint Vincent de Paul et les esclavagistes maghrébins....

By AAA;

L’aventure humaine et spirituelle de St Vincent de Paul au 17ème siècle mérite réflexion.

Comment un saint homme, connu pour sa compassion et son esprit pacifique, en est-il venu à souhaiter et préparer une intervention armée en Méditerranée pour secourir les dizaines de milliers de chrétiens déportés comme esclaves ou emprisonnés et maltraités dans les geôles islamiques du Maghreb ?

Auparavant, après la prise de Constantinople en 1453, durant laquelle les Ottomans allèrent jusqu’à violer les religieuses sur les autels des basiliques chrétiennes pour savourer leur victoire, la géopolitique de l’Europe s’est transformée. Les Ottomans étendent leur zone d’influence, ils conquièrent l’Egypte des mamelouks, la Mecque et l’Arabie, Bagdad et la Mésopotamie, ils occupent les Balkans où ils brutalisent les populations.

C’est alors que les pirates barbaresques établis au Maghreb apportent leur puissante contribution au Sultan de la Sublime Porte qui déploie sa domination sur toute l’Afrique du Nord, à l’exception du Maroc. Leur intense activité de razzia et de rançonnement va faire vivre les populations maghrébines et enrichir Istanbul de manière fulgurante. Comme les Barbaresques vouent une haine féroce envers les chrétiens, ils attaquent systématiquement les villes côtières en Méditerranée, pour les piller et massacrer les habitants. Ils brûlent les églises, capturent les jeunes femmes et les jeunes garçons qu’ils expédient à Istanbul pour les harems et les loisirs sexuels des dignitaires musulmans.

Année après année, la méditerranée est constamment le théâtre de tragédies : les Barbaresques interceptent les navires européens chargés de marchandises et de richesses. Ils récupèrent le butin et font prisonniers les passagers, hommes, femmes et enfants destinés à être vendus comme esclaves. Des personnalités de la noblesse française, italienne, espagnole sont prises en otages et libérées contre forte rançon. C’est ainsi que leurs forfaits vont contribuer à consolider l’Empire turc et à développer leurs implantations au Maghreb.

Alger et Tunis deviennent les places fortes et les bases arrières de la piraterie musulmane. Les Turcs et les pirates maghrébins organisent ensemble les trafics humains et les prises de butin, rendant de plus en plus difficile la situation des états chrétiens dans les échanges commerciaux.

Le pape Pie V cherche à mettre en place une stratégie qui puisse desserrer l’étau des Turcs sur l’Europe et la méditerranée. Cela aboutit à la bataille de Lépante en 1571, qui met en échec une des tentatives turques de conquérir l’Europe chrétienne et de faire flotter la bannière islamique dans toutes ses capitales.

Mais le brigandage massif se poursuit grâce aux réseaux des pirates barbaresques qui interceptent tout ce qui doit effectuer la traversée, matériaux, épices, objets précieux, êtres humains. Les états chrétiens comme la France, l’Angleterre, l’Espagne, ne réagissent pas, ils acceptent de payer des tributs considérables, des rançons énormes, tandis que d’autres comme les Républiques italiennes, les Etats pontificaux, Malte, l’Autriche et la Russie refusent catégoriquement de négocier avec les pirates de Barbarie.

Les captifs de toutes origines s’entassent néanmoins au cours du 16ème siècle dans les bagnes de Tunis et d’Alger. C’est l’expérience que fait Vincent de Paul lui-même, puisqu’il est fait prisonnier avec beaucoup d’autres passagers lors d’un voyage en 1605.

Vincent De Paul est né en 1576 près de Dax. Brillant dans les études, il s’oriente vers l’Ordre des Cordeliers (Franciscains) et il est ordonné prêtre en 1600. En voyage à Marseille, il prend le chemin du retour vers Narbonne en prenant le bateau. Mais les pirates sachant que le navire est chargé de marchandises l’arraisonnent sabre à la main. Ils l’escortent jusqu’à Tunis, où l’entrée du port est noire de monde criant « Allah ou Akbar » et exultant d’avance à la vue du navire marchand capturé.

Après l’accostage, les notables sont mis à part pour être restitués contre rançons, et les autres passagers acheminés vers le lieu de vente des esclaves. Alger compte alors environ trente mille esclaves chrétiens, Tunis autour de six mille. Vincent est vendu à un vieux fondeur alchimiste chez lequel il doit tenir douze fourneaux.

Ayant constaté son intelligence et sa culture, son maître cherche par tous les moyens à le convertir à l’islam, sans succès. Puis il le revend à un propriétaire terrien. Vincent est conscient de la condition insupportable des milliers d’esclaves chrétiens en terre d’islam. Il apprend que la Sublime Porte ne respecte pas le traité signé en 1604 avec la France pour libérer les esclaves. Il se demande comment alléger les souffrances des prisonniers.

Mais les circonstances favorables de ses allées et venues dans la propriété où il travaille lui permettent un jour de s’enfuir, après deux ans de captivité et de travail forcé. Accompagné d’un autre candidat au retour, c’est dans une barque qu’ils traversent périlleusement la mer pour aboutir finalement à Aigues-Mortes.

De là, Vincent de Paul se rend à Rome où il partage son souci du sort des esclaves avec l’ambassadeur de France. De retour à Paris, il fait la rencontre du cardinal de Bérulle, et met au point – grâce à des mécènes – son projet de fonder une société au service des pauvres, la société des dames de Charité. Nommé aumônier des galères du roi, il va au devant des condamnés pour les assister. Sensible au sort tragique des enfants abandonnés dans les rues de Paris, il parvient à en sauver des milliers en quelques décennies. Sa rencontre prolongée avec François de Sales, évêque de Genève, l’enracine dans sa volonté d’apporter des secours spirituels à ceux qui en ont le plus besoin.

En mai 1627, il crée les Prêtres de la Mission, avec l’appui du roi Louis XIII. Cette congrégation prendra le nom de « lazaristes ».

Le désir d’organiser le soulagement des souffrances, c’est aussi pour Vincent le projet de venir en aide aux esclaves prisonniers des bagnes de Barbarie, au Maghreb. Il fonde une œuvre en 1645, qui lui permet de faire délivrer plusieurs milliers de captifs chrétiens par paiement de rançon, mais il met en place une sorte d’aumônerie qui se soucie d’offrir un soutien spirituel et une amélioration des conditions de vie. Les missionnaires envoyés par Vincent vont se heurter à l’hostilité des chefs musulmans qui répugnent à voir des prêtres sur le sol de l’islam et qui ont déjà à plusieurs reprises refusé catégoriquement la construction de chapelles. La conversion surprise au catholicisme du fils du bey de Tunis parti avec sa suite se faire baptiser en Espagne n’arrange pas les choses.

Avançant en âge, et actif au service des pauvres et des souffrants de son temps, Vincent se rend compte que les accords et traités passés avec les autorités islamiques ne sont jamais respectés. Les navires des Barbaresques mandatés par le Sultan et sous l’autorité des deys de Tunis et d’Alger abordent les bateaux marchands des états chrétiens, les pillent et capturent les passagers. Les captifs sont traités comme du bétail, et vendus à leur arrivée. Les jeunes femmes, y compris les religieuses, sont expédiées dans les harems des dignitaires et du sultan. Les souverains européens protestent continuellement contre ces exactions, et pourtant rien ne change. Le roi de France montre des réactions assez molles, et il ne semble pas décidé à faire la guerre aux pirates musulmans. Le dey d’Alger a beau jeu de souligner ironiquement cette attitude velléitaire : « Ces Européens ont des cœurs de femmes ! Ils ne tourmentent point leurs ennemis ! »

De son côté, le grand Bossuet, dans son éloge de Pierre de Nolasque, écrit : « S’il y a au monde quelque servitude capable de représenter la misère extrême de la captivité horrible de l’homme sous la tyrannie du démon, c’est l’état d’un captif chrétien sous les mahométans, car le corps et l’esprit y souffrent une égale violence… »

Un prêtre genevois de la Mission, le père Noueli, raconte que circulant en soutane dans les rues d’Alger pour visiter les esclaves chrétiens mourants, appartenant à des musulmans, il est pris par les autochtones pour un juif, et les enfants lui crachent au visage, en l’appelant « papa des hébreux » et en l’insultant copieusement. Tout chrétien ou tout juif, en tant qu’infidèle, peut être poignardé dans le dos à tout moment.

Face à cette redoutable dégradation générale, ayant essayé tous les moyens pacifiques, diplomatiques, mis en échec par la stratégie musulmane, Vincent de Paul en arrive à ne plus se satisfaire de son Œuvre des Esclaves, et il envisage donc à partir de 1658 la manière forte pour résoudre le problème lancinant des captifs chrétiens en Barbarie. Pour cela il s’appuie sur son réseau de consuls présents dans les villes maritimes du Maghreb.

N’obtenant aucun résultat concret de la part du roi de France, Vincent de Paul constate que les succès défensifs déjà réalisés en Afrique du Nord par les Vénitiens, les Génois et les Maltais sont utiles mais insuffisants, et il prend la décision de financer lui-même une expédition militaire pour aller au secours des esclaves et des captifs, et pour stopper les persécutions et les exactions permanentes des Barbaresques. Des notables contribuent aux frais de cette entreprise de nettoyage des côtes de l’Algérie. Mais Vincent de Paul meurt en 1660, avant d’en voir les premiers résultats. La même année, Louis XIV envoie enfin une quinzaine de navires au devant des Barbaresques. Cela aboutit à un traité, signé par le dey d’Alger en 1666, garantissant la sûreté de la navigation chrétienne en Méditerranée. En 1668, l’abbé Alméras, successeur de Vincent de Paul, prend en charge la supervision des esclaves chrétiens en Barbarie. Mais la piraterie islamique reprend de plus belle, et la situation continue de se péjorer. Toutefois, le sultan du Maroc accepte de négocier avec la France et ouvre Fès aux Européens, ce qui n’empêche nullement les Algériens de continuer de nuire.

Lors des funérailles de Marie Thérèse d’Autriche, Bossuet s’exclame : « Alger ! Riche des dépouilles de la chrétienté, tu disais en ton cœur avare : je tiens la mer sous mes lois et les nations sont ma proie. Mais nous verrons la fin de tes brigandages ! »

Un nouveau traité signé en 1684 est de nouveau violé par les forbans islamiques. La France bombarde Alger et Cherchell. En représailles les Algérois exécutent de nombreux captifs. Nouveau bombardement.

Atermoiements du roi de France. Un peu plus tard, un nouveau projet de libération des territoires maghrébins est proposé à son successeur le roi Louis XV. Dans ses annales, le prêtre et savant italien Ludovico Muratori écrit : « Ce sera toujours une honte pour les Puissances de la chrétienté, aussi bien catholiques que protestantes, que de voir qu’au lieu d’unir leurs forces pour écraser, comme elles le pourraient, ces nids de scélérats, elles vont de temps à autre mendier par tant de sollicitations et de dons ou par des tributs, leur amitié, laquelle se trouve encline à la perfidie ».

Ce sont les Espagnols qui maintiennent la pression et qui reprennent Oran en 1732. Mais ils ne parviennent pas à briser les chaînes des milliers de prisonniers.

Nouveau traité signé par le Premier Consul avec Alger en 1801, aussitôt transgressé, comme d’habitude, mais le trafic s’atténue quelque temps. Lors du Congrès de Vienne, les Anglais et les Français semblent d’accord pour une intervention contre les pirates d’Alger. L’amiral Smith adresse un message à tous les gouvernements européens. En 1824, les esclaves chrétiens sont toujours au nombre d’arrivages de dix mille par an.

C’est en 1830 que le corps expéditionnaire français fort de trente sept mille hommes débarque à Alger. Deux cent ans après son initiative, le projet de Vincent de Paul aboutit sur le terrain. Les esclaves sont libérés.

La presse internationale salue avec enthousiasme la réussite de l’expédition. La Suisse déclare que la prise d’Alger est une victoire de la civilisation.

« Un succès vient de couronner une glorieuse entreprise tentée contre le plus puissant des états d’Afrique asile du brigandage ! Elle promet la sécurité de la Méditerranée, elle brisera les fers des esclaves chrétiens ».

Jules Ferry lui-même y voit un « acte de haute police méditerranéenne ».

Les Lazaristes de Vincent de Paul maintiennent leur Œuvre en Algérie, en Tunisie et au Maroc, au service des plus pauvres....

Market pressure for more "money printing" remains high in ZOG UK, Europe, and USA.....

Market pressure for more "money printing" remains high in ZOG UK, Europe, & USA.....

Cracks in Europe....
Commentary and weekly watch by Doug Noland

There were important developments last week on the liquidity analysis front. Tuesday's release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes (March 13 meeting) threw chilled water on market expectations for near-term additional quantitative easing. In Europe, Wednesday's auction of Spanish 10-year bonds disappointed increasingly nervous markets. Demand for Spain's debt has waned. This is a serious issue for a country suffering from deep recession, a troubled banking sector and ongoing borrowing requirements. Even from a bearish perspective, one would have expected the massive liquidity operations by the European Central Bank (ECB) to have bought Spain more than just a few short months.

It's the nature of inflationism that once commenced the "money



printing" just becomes incredibly difficult to stop. Over the years, US and global markets have been conditioned to expect policy measures that ensure ongoing marketplace liquidity support. The ECB's US$1.3 trillion Long-term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) liquidity facilities coupled with concerted global central bank liquidity measures were a game changer for global risk markets. Rapidly escalating de-risking/de-leveraging dynamics were stopped dead in their tracks.

From my analytical framework, the key issue these days boils down to a fundamental question: did policy measures commence a new bullish liquidity cycle for global risk markets? Or, instead, did these interventions only foment a period of upside market dislocation and instability with attendant susceptibility to disappointment?

Many were quick to downplay the markets' poor reception to the FOMC minutes. Only a "couple" committee members saw the potential need for additional quantitative easing, down from the "few" at the previous meeting. It is clear that the majority of committee members see no need for additional stimulus, although the markets the previous week were excited by chairman Ben Bernanke's dovishness. The marketplace is less than appreciative of the steady chorus of mixed messages from various central bankers.

Yet the markets do believe that Bernanke retains a keen desire for additional stimulus, in spite of heightened internal and external pressures. Last week's data will embolden the doves, if not the bulls. And the markets remain quite confident that the Fed chairman will move quickly to bolster the markets in the event of a return of market instability (the "Bernanke put"). This market perception inflates the market values of equities, bonds and risk assets more generally.

However, the markets last week clearly turned more sensitive to potential liquidity risks. In Europe, the markets took a meaningful step back toward instability. Spain's 10-year yields jumped 41 basis points (bps) to 5.74% (high since January 10), and the country's two-year yields jumped 46 bps to 2.93% (high since January 24).

Credit default swap (CDS) prices for Spain's sovereign debt jumped 27 bps this week to 464 bps, the high since last November. Worryingly, Spanish bank CDS prices spiked significantly higher. Italian 10-year yields jumped 34 bps this week to 5.44%, the high since February 24. Italian CDS surged 21 to 418 bps (two-week gain of 38 bps).

It is worth noting that Italian CDS traded at 127 bps one year ago; at that time Spain CDS was trading near 200 bps. Elsewhere in Europe, Belgium CDS rose 12 bps (245), France gained 10 bps (179), and Portugal jumped 26 bps (1,103). The new Greek 10-year bond saw its yield surge 96 bps this week to 21.50%, with a three-week gain of 372 bps.

And while policymaking plays a profound role in shaping market perceptions, my analytical framework recognizes the global leveraged speculating community as the marginal source of marketplace liquidity.

When the speculators are building positions and adding leverage, the markets enjoy self-reinforcing higher prices, bullish sentiment and liquidity abundance. The markets do, however, remain acutely vulnerable to any serious move to pare back risk/leverage. We saw again last year how quickly seemingly robust global markets can falter and succumb to self-reinforcing liquidation and illiquidity.
Two articles this week from the Financial Times (Sam Jones) shed some interesting light on speculator activities: "Hedge Funds Make Most of Assymetric Risks," and "ECB Liquidity Fuels High Stakes Hedging." "The European Central Bank's moves to boost liquidity in the Eurozone are powering big returns for the high-stakes hedge fund strategy made notorious by the collapse of Long Term Capital Management more than a decade ago: relative value bond arbitrage." Super.

From Sam Jones' FT article:

Across the eurozone, and beyond, hedge fund managers are now pointing to "significant" pricing anomalies on a scale not seen since 2008. A huge rally in credit has seen spreads tighten to pre-Lehman lows. The reason for most hedge funds is clear. For all of its protestations to the contrary, the European Central Bank's longer-term refinancing operation is having as profound an effect on markets as quantitative easing. "The Fed and the Bank of England were early and significant proponents of QE; the ECB has only recently begun," Michael Hintze, the founder of the $11bn credit hedge fund manager CQS wrote… "The thinly disguised QE move by the ECB - LTRO - still has further scope for expansion," he said. "The LTRO was a game changer,' says Suki Mann, a strategist at Societe Generale. "We have seen the mother of all rallies in the first quarter - the third best quarter for credit ever." It was a question of buying risk, says Mr Mann - "the higher the beta the better."

The odds are decent that the markets have been set up for major disappointment. Market participants - and surely the speculators - have viewed the introduction of LTRO in similar light to quantitative easing: once started, policymakers will be held hostage to the markets and forced into ongoing liquidity injections.

At long last, the markets have assumed, the ECB fell in line with the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. And once the risk market rally took off, there was intense pressure throughout the marketplace to participate. The bears were run over and the cautious were forced reluctantly to jump aboard.

Exceptionally strong markets then bolstered the view that the LTRO had fundamentally changed the liquidity and risk backdrop. In this liquidity-induced euphoria, a fallacy took hold that Europe was well on the way to actually resolving its debt crisis.

There is support for the view that the unlimited nature of the LTRO was ill-conceived; that the ECB lost control as the liquidity facilities ballooned to unimaginable dimensions. But perhaps, instead of the beginning of something - might the LTRO actually prove to be something more akin to the beginning of the end? Rather than the ECB finally succumbing to the Fed's inflationist policy doctrine, might the LTRO spur the Bundesbank (and others) to take a harder line with liquidity operations?

Whether one examines the LTRO or the Fed's QE programs, the scope of these market interventions has become staggering. Resulting market distortions have been commensurate. The whirlwind of speculation has turned too unwieldy. And with the LTRO having incited powerful forces of re-risking and re-leveraging, European markets have actually become increasingly vulnerable to an abrupt deterioration in the liquidity backdrop.

The euro was hit for 1.8% last week. German bunds rallied, with spreads to other European borrowers widening meaningfully. The so-called "relative value bond arbitrage" and other leveraged strategies might have had a rough go of it. The Italian 10-year yield to bund spread widened 41 bps this week to 371 bps (9-wk high). The Spain to German yield spread widened 47 bps to 401 bps (wide since November). The French to bund spread widened 16 bps to the widest level since January 19. European equities performed poorly. Germany's DAX dropped 2.5%, reducing its year-to-date gain to 14.9%. Spanish stocks were hit for 4.5% (down 10.6% y-t-d) and Italian stocks were smacked for 5.0% (up 0.8% y-t-d).

The week brought important confirmation for the thesis of heightened European market vulnerability. There's a strong case that an important market inflection point has been reached in Europe. Once de-risking/de-leveraging dynamics commence in earnest they generally persist. Contagion effects build momentum. And last week global markets also appeared increasingly vulnerable. But how this might play out in US markets is less clear.

There was a certain amount of intrigue heading into Friday's US payroll data, not the least of which was that most markets were closed for the holiday. Many thought somewhat disappointing data would support Bernanke's case for QE3, in the process bolstering the flagging "risk on" trade. Others, including myself, believed US equities would prefer stronger data, employment growth that would support the "US as relatively best performer" thesis.

But at 120,000, the increase in nonfarm payrolls was the weakest reading since October (112,000) and below even the pessimistic estimates. Bonds surged on the news, as S&P 500 futures sank more than 1%. The dollar retreated somewhat on the news, although the currencies were mixed overall.

Friday accounted for much of last week's decline in 10-year Treasury yields. Fixed income spreads were generally resilient in the face of heightened European stress and resulting pressure on global risk markets. If Friday's Treasury rally is sustained Monday, it will be interesting to monitor various credit spreads (many credit instruments did not trade Friday).

There is growing market chatter regarding huge positions in various credit indices being traded by major market operators (including JPMorgan). I would tend to see such a backdrop raising the odds of market fireworks if the reemergence of European debt stress provokes a bout of general risk aversion. With markets poised for a weak Monday open, those positioned aggressively "risk on" had a long weekend to contemplate an increasingly unsettled backdrop.

US stocks were lower for the week, although they significantly outperformed Europe and most global bourses. While Friday's data don't help the cause, it's too early to dismiss the possibility that US equities have been anointed "best game in town" by the sophisticated market operators. At the same time, I see added support for the view that much of the global leveraged speculating community is operating with "weak hands".

When markets head south - albeit Spanish stocks and bonds, commodities or gold equities - there's intense pressure to liquidate positions and cut losses. At the same time, our bubble markets have a history of trying to ignore European developments. At the minimum, it is at this point reasonable to presume that the recent halcyon period for global risk markets is winding down....

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/ND11Dj01.html

Germany Looks for Bigger Piece of Central Asian Pie....

Germany Looks for Bigger Piece of Central Asian Pie....

Germany’s Changing Role in Central Asia

Richard Rousseau

The international community, following the September 11, 2001 events and the subsequent outbreak of war in Afghanistan “rediscovered” the strategic importance of the Central Asian region. Germany was among the first countries to pay more attention to this region. However, Berlin already had decades of experience of dealing with major issues in Central Asia. Germany was the first European country to recognize Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and as early as 1992 it sent various diplomatic missions to the region. Now Germany is showing even greater interest in forging closer relations, both politically and economically, with these five Central Asian governments.

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Richard Rousseau is Associate Professor and Chairman of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Khazar University in Baku, Azerbaijan and a contributor to Global Brief, World Affairs in the 21st Century (www.globalbrief.ca) and the Jamestown Foundation.

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Yet, the lack of improvement in the democratization process in the Central Asian countries could negatively affect these relations in the not-too-distant future (the recent deterioration in the German-Uzbek relationship is a sign of that). Such a development could seriously put at risk the successful implementation of the German (officially European Union) strategy for Central Asia.[1]

Germany’s interest in Central Asia

At first sight, the massive and willfully promoted presence of Germany in all five Central Asian states, all relatively poor countries by world standards, appears somewhat absurd. Nevertheless, substantial human and financial resources are being allocated to the region by Germany, and a recent increase in the numbers of German staff, supported by some European Union (EU) officials, testifies to the seriousness of Germany’s plans for that part of the world. Berlin has created a network in which its diplomatic missions are supported by numerous economic and development institutions, such as the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ, German Society for International Cooperation), the Bankengruppe (KfW, German Development Bank) and cultural bodies, such as the Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst (DAAD, German Academic Exchange Service), the Deutschen Volkshochschul-Verbandes e.V. (DVV, German Adult Education Association), the Welthungerhilfe (emergency aid), the Goethe Institute, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS, policy expertise) and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftun (FES, think tank). In Almaty, Kazakhstan, the Germans have established the Kazakh-German KGU University. It is interesting to note that German is one of the most widely spoken foreign languages in the five countries making up the Central Asian region.

Berlin’s motivation in creating a network of cultural institutions and economic programs in the region is many sided. Reinhard Krumm, in his paper “Central Asia, the struggle for power, energy and human rights”[2]suggests that this has taken three chronologically distinct phases, in each of which German interests have changed (although it would perhaps be more correct to say that new interests have been added in the light of changes in external conditions). In the period immediately following the five republics’ independence, Berlin was primarily interested in protecting the approximately one million ethnic Germans who had lived in the region since their deportation to that region during the Second World War (through an edict of August 28, 1941, Joseph Stalin personally ordered the deportation in mass of ethnic Germans from the Volga region to Central Asia).

This displaced population (concentrated mainly in Kazakhstan, and to a lesser extent Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan) is the key to understanding why political relations between Germany and the five Central Asian republics have been so intense since the early nineties. At the beginning of the 2000s, however, more interest was stirred by the rich energy resources (oil and gas) yet to be found in the region. This was clearly explained in a 1998 document presented by the German Social Democratic Party and entitled “Zukunftsregion Kaspisches Meer” (“the Future of the Caspian Sea”[3]).

The September 11, 2001 attacks on America marked a critical turning point in German policy towards Central Asia, which became for Berlin an area of strategic importance in the fight against international terrorism. The German strategy, outlined in the “Central Asia Concept” of March 18, 2002, was summarized by the German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle in last November during his visit to Astana: “If we are to ensure the success of the political process of reconciliation in Afghanistan, then it is crucial that neighboring countries become involved, that they (…) are politically engaged but have also such strong links with the Afghan economy that it can develop favorably.”[4]

Berlin’s interests in the Central Asian region are also predominant in the economic sphere and are keeping growing. These German economic interests there in Central Asia are certainly not limited to oil and natural gas, though these continue to be a primary focus – for instance, on March 14-15 next year Berlin will host the “Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Road Show 2012.”[5] Equally important are German exports of machinery, vehicles and chemicals to the five republics, especially at a time when the global economic crisis has led to a decline in global demand for such products, which have always been the backbone of the German economy.

Political relations, but not good ones

Since the early nineties Germany has maintained good relations with the political leaders of all the republics of the region. The results are seen in the frequent visits by senior government officials, conclusions of economic agreements and a flurry of political activity by a growing number of German companies. The intensity of cooperation in the cultural sector is another indication of the intensity of these relations. To cite just one example, a “Year of Germany in Kazakhstan”[6] was celebrated in Kazakhstan, the main German partner in the region, between February 2009 and February 2010. During the Kazakhstani President’s visit to Germany in 2010 Berlin decided to reciprocate by proclaiming the “Year of Kazakhstan in Germany.” There have been numerous mutual visits made over the last few years by top government officials of both countries, including one to Astana by German federal President Horst Koelher in September 2009, during which a series of official documents were signed, including six trade agreements. In 2010 Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, twice visited Astana to sign a series of “investment memorandums.”[7] More recently, on July 20, 2011, Westerwelle met his Kazakh counterpart in Berlin. A few days earlier in Karaganda was held the 5th meeting of the “German-Kazakh Intergovernmental Working Group on Business and Trade” (RAG).

Germany’s relations with the five Central Asian republics seem therefore to continue to be strengthened over time. However, a closer analysis reveals some hidden weaknesses and inherent risks in Berlin’s relations with these young states. These were brought to the forefront by the recent friction between the German and Uzbek governments. Berlin had planned for a German delegation to visit Tashkent in November 2010 to hold bilateral meetings with the Uzbek government and parliament in order to discuss human rights in the region. The visit was, however, rejected through a statement from the Uzbek foreign ministry. Frictions between the two governments also increased in August 2011, when the Uzbek authorities in Tashkent took control of Steinert Industries, a major German-owned bakery. Not even the German Ambassador, Wolfgang Neuen, was subsequently allowed entry into the facility.[8]

Tashkent’s behavior in this matter was most likely prompted by President Karimov’s desire to impose tight control over the national economy. As early as 1993 he issued a decree establishing a national economic model which on the one hand supported the opening up of the country to international trade but at the same time maintained strict governmental control over the goods and services coming in and out of the country. The presence and expansion of large German companies in the country may have been interpreted as a threat to the Uzbek government’s control of the economy. The punitive action taken against the bakery was probably meant as a way to send a clear message to Berlin.

On the other hand, this unexpected reaction alone does not explain Tashkent’s current discontent with Germany. Karimov’s recent attitude could equally be read as a reaction to the Bundestag’s May 19 investigation into violations of human rights in Uzbekistan. On May 19, 2011, six years almost to the day after the Andijan massacre, during which about 800 people were killed after the Uzbek security forces opened fire on demonstrators in this eastern region of Uzbekistan, four members of the German Parliament (Viola von Cramon, Johannes Pflug, Dagmar Enkelmann and Volker Beck) officially called on Chancellor Angela Merkel to raise the cases of Akzam Turgunov and twelve other human rights defenders unjustly imprisoned and tortured by the government of Uzbekistan.[9] Tashkent must not have liked this initiative, and Karimov is probably now sending to the Berlin government a clear message that he will not accept any kind of German interference in Uzbekistan’s internal affairs.

Human rights

It is increasingly evident that the speed of democratization in the Central Asian states will to a large extent determine the success or failure of the German strategy towards the “stans.” The key issue here is to define the optimal strategy for ensuring the maintenance of the close ties which bind Germany to this key region, an indispensable bridge between Europe and Asia.

Until recently, Berlin has favored a very tolerant attitude towards the authoritarian regimes of the five Central Asian republics. This has set the tone for the relationship between Berlin and Tashkent. In consequence, strong pressure from the German government has persuaded the EU in November 2009 to finally (and reluctantly) lift the sanctions – including an arms embargo – imposed on Uzbekistan following the May 15, 2005 Andijan massacre.[10] Between 2005 and 2009 Berlin did not comply with EU sanctions anyway, and continued to support the Uzbek president – for example, Germany paid 67.9 million euros to Tashkent between 2005 and 2009 to cover the costs of using the Termez military base, which provides essential logistical support for the German troops deployed in Afghanistan. During the same period, in breach of the Europe-wide ban on Uzbek officials imposed by Brussels (penalties were attached to EU members hosting visits by members of the Uzbek government), Berlin allowed the Uzbek Interior Minister, Zokir Almatov, to travel to Germany for medical treatment.[11] Since 2010, Germany has granted the Uzbek government an additional 15.9 million euros a year as “financial compensation” for its use of the Termez base, even though Tashkent has demonstrated no real will to respect human rights of its citizens, as the EU demands.

Putting the moral considerations involved in these disbursements aside, one cannot pin the slightest hope for success on any strategy based on the appeasement of Tashkent’s anti-democratic policy. Berlin’s disinterest in dealing with human rights issues in Uzbekistan means a huge loss of bargaining power. Its passivity is now more likely to enhance the level of blackmail undertaken by the Uzbek government. This will only strengthen Tashkent’s conviction that there is no need to review its human rights and democratization practices.

Judging from its official policy documents, Germany does seem to understand that the issue of human rights is fundamental, not only on the humanitarian level but also in terms of protecting Germany’s own interests in the region. The democratization, pacification and stabilization of the area are at the centre of the EU’s strategy for Central Asia, which was drafted in 2007 under the German presidency of the time and coincides almost completely with Germany’s own. A reading of both German and EU official documents shows indeed a clear understanding of the importance of democratization and the protection of human rights. The EU document reads: “The aim of the European Commission’s assistance Strategy Paper for Central Asia (2007-13) is to promote the stability and security of the countries of Central Asia, to assist in their pursuit of sustainable economic development and poverty reduction and to facilitate closer regional cooperation both within Central Asia and between Central Asia and the EU.”[12] However, these official statements, if anything, do not constitute a sufficient means of improving, or at least ensuring, the protection of human rights, despite the many useful projects also being implemented by the EU and Berlin in this field. The key will be to add even more strategic and humanitarian projects to these statements, to take immediate and firm action against any violations and to refuse to accede to the socio-economic demands of Tashkent and those of other regional governments, unless progress is made.

Such a course of action would involve, for example, linking the payment of a ‘financial contribution” for the use of the Termez base to real action on various humanitarian issues. Germany should react immediately and firmly to Karimov’s recent initiatives, make sure that any sanctions deemed necessary are actually applied and ensure that demands for democratization are taken seriously in Tashkent. Such a strategy would increase the bargaining power and the credibility of Germany and the EU in throughout all of Central Asia.

NOTES

[1] See European Community Regional Strategy Paper for Assistance to Central Asia for the period 2007-2013.http://www.eeas.europa.eu/central_asia/rsp/07_13_en.pdf

[2] Krumm, Reinhard , Central Asia, the struggle for power, energy and human rights, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftun, January 2007. http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/04329.pdf

[3] Zukunftsregion Kaspisches Meer : deutsche Interessen und europäische Politik in den transkaukasischen und zentralasiatischen Staaten (Future Caspian Sea: German and European policy interests in the Transcaucasian and Central Asian States), SPD parliamentary group policy paper, Bonn, 1998. http://www.gernot-erler.de/old/ot/ot1.html#Inhalt

[4] Federal Foreign Office website, November 17, 2011. http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/EN/AAmt/BM-Reisen/2011/11-Tkm/111116-Ankuendigung-TKM-node.html

[5] See http://www.turkmenistan-europe.com

[6] See http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/EN/Aussenpolitik/Laender/Laenderinfos/01-Nodes/Kasachstan_node.html

[7] Seehttp://portal.mfa.kz/portal/page/portal/mfa/resources/Pictures/Astana%20Calling%202010%20(PDF)/Tab/Astana%20Calling%20092110.pdf;http://www.investkz.com/en/journals/69/571.html; http://www.kazakhembassy.nl/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=142:news-bulletin-of-the-embassy-of-the-republic-of-kazakhstan&catid=37:economy-&Itemid=86

[8] Catherine A. Fitzpatrick, Uzbekistan Cancels German Parliamentary Rights Committee Visit, Eurasianet, June 30, 2011. http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63778

[9] See http://www.freedom-now.org/news/members-of-the-german-parliament-call-on-chancellor-merkel-to-raise-the-cases-of-freedom-now-client-akzam-turgunov-and-12-other-imprisoned-human-rights-defenders-with-the-government-of-uzbekistan

[10] Simon Tisdall, Why does the EU Give Credibility to such Dictators as Islam Karimov? The Guardian, January 26, 2011. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jan/26/eu-dictators-islam-karimov

[11] EU, US Should Press for Accountability, End to Rights Abuses, Human Rights Watch, May 11. 2011.http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/05/11/uzbekistan-6-years-no-justice-andijan-victims

[12] European Community Regional…, op. cit.

The return of the Zioconned Keyboard Warriors....

The return of the Zioconned Keyboard Warriors....
By Pepe Escobar

Waiting for the end of the world,
Waiting for the end of the world,
Waiting for the end of the world.
Dear Lord, I sincerely hope you're coming
‘cause you really started something.
Elvis Costello, Waiting for the end of the world

Be afraid. Be very afraid. The Return of the Keyboard Warriors - a prized Return of the Living Dead spin-off - is at hand. From Republican chicken hawks to public intellectuals, right-wing America is erupting in renewed neo-conservative revolt. The year 2012 is the new 2002; Iran is the new Iraq. Whatever the highway - real men go to Tehran via Damascus, or real men go to Tehran non-stop - they want a war, and they want it now.

Go ahead and jump
Exhibit A is an op-ed piece at the Wall Street Journal [1] - similar to countless others popping up virtually everyday not only in this Masters of the Universe vehicle but also in the Washington Post and myriad rags across "Western civilization".

The festival of fallacies ranges from the usual "diplomacy has run its course" to "the sanctions are too late" - culminating in the right-wing weapon of choice; "Iran is within a year of getting to the point when it will be able to assemble a bomb essentially at will." Why bother to follow what the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is doing, not to mention the National Intelligence Estimates released by the US intelligence community?

And why not add imperial disdain tinged with racism, as in "Iran is a Third World country that can't even protect its own scientists in the heart of Tehran". Of course not; they are being killed by the Iranian terror group Mujahideen-e-Khalq, merrily trained, financed and armed by Israel's Mossad, as US corporate media has just discovered. [2] Everybody in Iran has known this for months.

As a climax, still another fallacy - "the Islamic Republic means to destroy Israel" - unveils the real agenda; "the broader goal of ending the regime." Oh, if we could only have our Persian gendarme of the Gulf back.

This is what passes for geopolitical analysis in Rupert Murdoch-controlled US corporate media - read and relinked daily by the Masters of the Universe. Scary monsters, super freaks
Exhibit B is an op-ed piece at Tina Brown's The Daily Beast, [3] signed by Niall Ferguson, professor of history at Harvard, senior research fellow at Jesus College, Oxford, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford.

Recently, I actually took the trouble of reading Ferguson's latest book, Civilization: The West and the Rest, during my favorite West-to-Rest flight, the 16-hour New York to Hong Kong (from the American century to the Asian century).

Ferguson sets out to refute the reasons why Israel should not attack Iran. He assumes "the Saudis stand ready to pump out additional supplies" of oil (wrong). He assumes a "military humiliation" will lead the regime in Tehran to collapse (wrong). He claims that Tehran will not "become a sober, calculating disciple of the realist school of diplomacy ... because it has finally acquired weapons of mass destruction" (multiple wrong; Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is very sober and calculating, and he has banned nuclear weapons as anti-Islamic).

Former US vice president Dick Cheney would have been proud to hire Ferguson as an apparatchik, as he states that "preventive war can be a lesser evil" and duly advocates "creative destruction".

Ferguson ranks Israel as "the most easterly outpost of Western civilization"; not bad for an isolated, supremacist theocracy/ethnocracy armed with at least 200 (undeclared) nuclear weapons whose favorite sport is to terrorize Palestinians and now Iranian scientists. Talk about a sponsor of terror state springing from the womb of "Western civilization".

Ferguson's toxic fusion of arrogance and ignorance - about the Middle East, about Persian culture, about Asia, about the nuclear issue, about the oil industry, about, in fact, "the Rest" - would be just innocuous hadn't he be hailed as a top public intellectual. The best thing about his piece are actually the comments, ranging from "I'm shocked that a research fellow at Jesus College would advocate the bombing of Muslims" to "What's with all these Brits that look to the USA as a platform to re-inflate their dreams of Empire?"

If this is what passes for intellectual analysis in the upper strata of the Anglo-American axis, no wonder the whole business of Empire is doomed.

Far more insidious than The Invasion of the Keyboard Warriors is its effect on the warrior-in-chief, US President Barack Obama. Recently, Obama has been conducting product placement for Robert Kagan's new book, The World America Made. Kagan, a neo-con stalwart, advises Mitt Romney - who may, or may not, become the Republican presidential nominee, assuming he wins over the visceral repulsion he provokes in extreme right-wing circles.

As Andrew Levine from the Institute for Policy Studies has shrewdly observed, [4] Obama the neo-con may be a very clever move to pre-empt Mitt and win even more votes. But it may be an exercise in transparency, as Obama, even before his State of the Union address, has been reciting Kagan to the letter, as in forget Asia, this will be another American century, and I will be at the helm; thus remember, it is I that coined the only change you can believe in.

And that's when this really becomes a scary movie; if Obama the neo-con concludes that to get to his new, dominant American century first he needs to do some vacuum-cleaning in Southwest Asia, blowback or not, he'll do it - to the delight of the Keyboard Warrior brigade.

Notes
1. (How) Should Israel Bomb Iran? by Bret Stephens, Wall Street Journal, February 7.
2. Israel teams with terror group to kill Iran's nuclear scientists, U.S. officials tell NBC News, February 9.
3. Israel and Iran on the Eve of Destruction in a New Six-Day War February 6.
4. Why the Neo-Con Turn? by Andrew Levine, Counterpunch, February 9.

....لو كان المجتمع الدولي قد تعامل منذ البداية مع المشكلة في أرمينيا بطريقة حاسمة، لما كانت إسرائيل تحتلّ فلسطين اليوم

....لو كان المجتمع الدولي قد تعامل منذ البداية مع المشكلة في أرمينيا بطريقة حاسمة،
لما كانت إسرائيل تحتلّ فلسطين اليوم

DESPITE VEHEMENT protests by the Armenian citizens, the Turkish president, Abdullah Gul and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sarkisian decided to overcome decades of enmity and disagreement over the massacre of Armenians by the Ottoman forces during the First World War. This decision was taken by the leaders of both states after the Turkish head came to Yerevan to enjoy a football match between Turkey and Armenia at Hrazdan stadium on Saturday ....

Both agreed to forget the past rivalries that existed between them for decades and attempted to build an amicable relationship now. After returning to Ankara, the capital of Turkey, Gul told the media that his visit to Yerevan was successful from every aspect. A friendly relationship is essential for the overall development of the two neighbouring states.

Gul is also the first Turkish president who has visited Armenia after the First World War. His Armenian counterpart, Sarkisian also stated before the media on Sunday (September 7) that only a positive political will would block all negative impressions from being passed to the next generation.

Though the two state heads are trying their best to mitigate all kinds of political tension between them, the Armenian people showed vehement protest against such an attempt. Several hundred angry protesters queued at the route of Gul’s motorcade, holding aloft the Armenian flag and nationalist emblems.

Meanwhile, the football match was conducted amid an impregnable security with a Turkey beating Armenia 2-0. To avert any kind of violence, Gul had to watch the match from behind a special bullet-proof cover.

Turkey and Armenia had no diplomatic relations after the First World War as 1.5 million Armenians were brutally killed between 1915 and 1917 in orchestrated massacres by the Ottoman "crypto-Jewish Turks, i.e. the Donmeh".... which was referred by the Armenians as ’genocide’. But, Turkey rejected the label of ’genocide’ and argued that at least 3,00,000 to 5,00,000 Armenians and Turks died in civil strife when Armenians declared independence in eastern Anatolia and sided with the invading Russian troops, thereby favoring the bullets....

'A little learning is a dangerous thing' , 'Beware of wolves in sheep's clothing....'

'A little learning is a dangerous thing' , 'Beware of wolves in sheep's clothing....'

History Lesson by Arthur C. Clarke has been one of my favorite short stories since boyhood. It contains some allegorical lessons about the importance of context and assumptions in scientific and historical study. It has served me well throughout the years.

The story is of course the intellectual descendant of Plato's Allegory of the Cave, from Book VII of The Republic, which I enjoyed ...., if you prefer to use a reference with a more high brow pedigree.

And now I would like to share an excerpt from it with you.

As the story begins, the cooling of the sun has turned the Earth into a cold world covered by ice, effectively destroying all life and preserving only a few remnants of human civilization.

But this cooling has had a beneficial effect on Venus, turning a once harsh world into a lush plant. After thousands of years, a reptilian race had arisen, and eventually become capable of interplanetary flight.

This race was intrigued by their sister planet, the Earth. A number of expeditions had retrieved fragments that showed intelligent life, but their understanding was still very limited.

As the story begins here, a recent expedition has retrieved several key artifacts, including one that is utterly unique, holding great promise.

...The warm ocean that still bore most of the young planet's life rolled its breakers languidly against
the sandy shore. So new was this continent that the very sands were coarse and gritty. There had not
yet been time enough for the sea to wear them smooth.

The scientists lay half in the water, their beautiful reptilian bodies gleaming in the sunlight. The
greatest minds of Venus had gathered on this shore from all the islands of the planet. What they were
going to hear they did not know, except that it concerned the Third World and the mysterious race that
had peopled it before the coming of the ice.

The Historian was standing on the land, for the instruments he wished to use had no love of water.
By his side was a large machine which attracted many curious glances from his colleagues. It was
clearly concerned with optics, for a lens system projected from it toward a screen of white material a
dozen yards away.

The Historian began to speak. Briefly he recapitulated what little had been discovered concerning the
Third Planet and its people.

He mentioned the centuries of fruitless research that had failed to interpret a single word of the
writings of Earth. The planet had been inhabited by a race of great technical ability. That, at least,
was proved by the few pieces of machinery that had been found in the cairn upon the mountain.

"We do not know why so advanced a civilization came to an end," he observed. "Almost certainly, it had
sufficient knowledge to survive an ice Age. There must have been some other factor of which we know
nothing. Possibly disease or racial degeneration may have been responsible. It has even been suggested
that the tribal conflicts endemic to our own species in prehistoric times may have continued on the
Third Planet after the coming of technology.

Some philosophers maintain that knowledge of machinery does not necessarily imply a high degree of
civilization, and it is theoretically possible to have wars in a society possessing mechanical power,
flight, and even radio. Such a conception is alien to our thoughts, but we must admit its possibility.
It would certainly account for the downfall of the lost race.

It has always been assumed that we should never know anything of the physical form of the creatures
who lived on Planet Three. For centuries our artists have been depicting scenes from the history of
the dead world, peopling it with all manner of fantastic beings. Most of these creations have
resembled us more or less closely, though it has often been pointed out that because we are reptiles
it does not follow that all intelligent life must necessarily be reptilian.

We now know the answer to one of the most baffling problems of history. At last, after hundreds of
years of research, we have discovered the exact form and nature of the ruling life on the Third
Planet."

There was a murmur of astonishment from the assembled scientists. Some were so taken aback that they
disappeared for a while into the comfort of the ocean, as all Venusians were apt to do in moments of
stress. The Historian waited until his colleagues reemerged into the element they so disliked. He
himself was quite comfortable, thanks to the tiny sprays that were continually playing over his body.
With their help he could live on land for many hours before having to return to the ocean.
The excitement slowly subsided and the lecturer continued:

"One of the most puzzling of the objects found on Planet Three was a flat metal container holding a
great length of transparent plastic material, perforated at the edges and wound tightly into a spool.
This transparent tape at first seemed quite featureless, but an examination with the new subelectronic
microscope has shown that this is not the case. Along the surface of the material, invisible to our
eyes but perfectly clear under the correct radiation, are literally thousands of tiny pictures. It is
believed that they were imprinted on the material by some chemical means, and have faded with the
passage of time.

These pictures apparently form a record of life as it was on the Third Planet at the height of its
civilization. They are not independent. Consecutive pictures are almost identical, differing only in
the detail of movement. The purpose of such a record is obvious. It is only necessary to project the
scenes in rapid succession to give an illusion of continuous movement. We have made a machine to do
this, and I have here an exact reproduction of the picture sequence.

The scenes you are now going to witness take us back many thousands of years, to the great days of
our sister planet. They show a complex civilization, many of whose activities we can only dimly
understand. Life seems to have been very violent and energetic, and much that you will see is quite
baffling.

It is clear that the Third Planet was inhabited by a number of different species, none of them
reptilian. That is a blow to our pride, but the conclusion is inescapable. The dominant type of life
appears to have been a two-armed biped. It walked upright and covered its body with some flexible
material, possibly for protection against the cold, since even before the Ice Age the planet was at a
much lower temperature than our own world. But I will not try your patience any further. You will now
see the record of which I have been speaking."

A brilliant light flashed from the projector. There was a gentle whirring, and on the screen appeared
hundreds of strange beings moving rather jerkily to and fro. The picture expanded to embrace one of
the creatures, and the scientists could see that the Historian's description had been correct.
The creature possessed two eyes, set rather close together, but the other facial adornments were a
little obscure. There was a large orifice in the lower portion of the head that was continually
opening and closing. Possibly it had something to do with the creature's breathing.

The scientists watched spellbound as the strange being became involved in a series of fantastic
adventures. There was an incredibly violent conflict with another, slightly different creature. It seemed
certain that they must both be killed, but when it was all over neither seemed any the worse.
Then came a furious drive over miles of country in a four wheeled mechanical device which was capable
of extraordinary feats of locomotion. The ride ended in a city packed with other vehicles moving in
all directions at breathtaking speeds. No one was surprised to see two of the machines meet head-on
with devastating results.

After that, events became even more complicated. It was now quite obvious that it would take many
years of research to analyze and understand all that was happening. It was also clear that the record
was a work of art, somewhat stylized, rather than an exact reproduction of life as it actually had
been on the Third Planet.

Most of the scientists felt themselves completely dazed when the sequence of pictures came to an end.
There was a final flurry of motion, in which the creature that had been the center of interest became
involved in some tremendous but incomprehensible catastrophe. The picture contracted to a circle,
centered on the creature's head.

The last scene of all was an expanded view of its face, obviously expressing some powerful emotion.
But whether it was rage, grief, defiance, resignation or some other feeling could not be guessed. The
picture vanished. For a moment some lettering appeared on the screen, then it was all over.

For several minutes there was complete silence, save for the lapping of the waves upon the sand. The
scientists were too stunned to speak. The fleeting glimpse of Earth's civilization had had a
shattering effect on their minds. Then little groups began to start talking together, first in
whispers and then more and more loudly as the implications of what they had seen became clearer.
Presently the Historian called for attention and addressed the meeting again.

"We are now planning," he said, "a vast program of research to extract all available knowledge from
this record. Thousands of copies are being made for distribution to all workers. You win appreciate
the problems involved. The psychologists in particular have an immense task confronting them.

"But I do not doubt that we shall succeed. In another generation, who can say what we may not have
learned of this wonderful race? Before we leave, let us look again at our remote cousins,
whose wisdom may have surpassed our own but of whom so little has survived."

Once more the final picture flashed on the screen, motionless this time, for the projector had been
stopped. With something like awe, the scientists gazed at the stiff figure from the past, while in
turn the little biped stared back at them with its characteristic expression of arrogant bad temper.

For the rest of time it would symbolize the human race. The psychologists of Venus would analyze its
actions and watch its every movement until they could reconstruct its mind. Thousands of books would
be written about it. Intricate philosophies would be contrived to account for its behavior.

But all. this labor, all this research, would be utterly in vain. Perhaps the proud and lonely figure
on the screen was smiling sardonically at the scientists who were starting on their age-long fruitless
quest.

Its secret would be safe as long as the universe endured, for no one now would ever read the lost
language of Earth. Millions of times in the ages to come those last few words would flash across the
screen, and none could ever guess their meaning:

Arthur C. Clarke, History Lesson

Whole pyramids of learned understanding, highly structured laws, and academic rules can be built on a set of false assumptions, or some principle or premise based not on context but in some intellectual misapprehension.

So it is with the efficient market theory or trickle down economics, for example. Or the idea that by feeding the 'job creators' until they are stuffed one might eventually improve the condition of the many by trickling down.

Granted, all too often these misconceptions of reality are by intent, just another facet in a general campaign of propaganda and deception. But their acceptance by the public still proves the danger of untested and unproven assumptions and building even highly ordered and intricate structures on false premises.

Whether it is in your study of the stock market, money, and economics, or of some translation and interpretation of an antique work, or in reading an essay about an idea or person in history, you may wish to keep this little story in mind.

All too often someone will make an outlandish assertion, and upon questioning it appears that their primary knowledge of the subject at hand is based upon the reading, or more likely viewing, of an essay or video by some individual or group promoting that particular interpretation of reality. They have nothing else to judge it by, given their lack of investigation and knowledge, but it is duly enshrined in the pantheon of human thought as 'their opinion,' their private judgement.

And their position is often unassailable by reason, because it is not based in thought but in a system of belief. But it is not safeguarded by the intellectual constraints and dignified distance one must place on a religion as inherently a leap of faith beyond the limits of science. Science and the supernatural are by definition not the same, but complementary.

One could spend a lifetime studying the stock markets, for example, trying to make sense of them and their movements, and build an impressive body of study and rules, but fail miserably despite all that work, because one has built upon the false premise that the game was honest and subject to natural laws, and not often rigged and controlled by insiders to the very extent that they can get away with it.

Or perhaps there is a belief in some economic system like 'market capitalism' controlled by an oligarchy through the manipulation of money and information for their own ends in the name of freedom, for example.

It may be summed up in the familiar saying, 'A little learning is a dangerous thing' and perhaps, 'Beware of wolves in sheep's clothing.'

"Whereas the truth is that the State in which the rulers are most reluctant to govern is always the best and most quietly governed, and the State in which they are most eager, the worst...You must contrive for your future rulers another and a better life than that of a ruler, and then you may have a well-ordered State; for only in the State which offers this, will they rule who are truly rich, not in silver and gold, but in virtue and wisdom, which are the true blessings of life.

Whereas if they go to the administration of public affairs, poor and hungering after their own private advantage, thinking that hence they are to snatch the chief good, order there can never be; for they will be fighting about office, and the civil and domestic broils which thus arise will be the ruin of the rulers themselves and of the whole State."

Plato, The Republic

As with men and rulers, so with markets and money.

Greed is an excess of desire and lack of empathy and judgement, outside of the virtues, and is therefore most decidedly not 'good.' A system built predominantly upon unrestrained greed, anger, envy, and pride will not, by definition, be virtuous but degenerative, unstable, and ultimately self-destructive if not put down by its victims first.

"The sad duty of government is to establish justice in a sinful world."

Reinhold Niebuhr

And I suspect that history will see us as deluded fools for having believed otherwise, forsaking a Constitution that is based upon first principles, actively promoting the virtues of goodness, equality, moderation, the careful distribution of power, and both freedom and justice for all....

Europe's economic malaise knows no end, but the first "CIA" president knows where salvation lies....

Europe's economic malaise knows no end, but the first "CIA" president knows where salvation lies....

This is a PUFF piece hand written by CIA to further the chances of OBAMA in 2012.....the real Obama story is further down here....***


http://geoplotical.blogspot.com/2010/10/barack-obamas-mother-is-key-to.html

United States President Barack Obama is the first MANCHURIAN CIA nurtured head of a Western democracy; born and raised in Hawaii and schooled in Indonesia, he is also the first "CIA" president wall to wall.... On jaunts through through Asia-Pacific Economic Forum in Hawaii to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Bali in November, he stressed America needs to remain engaged in the Asia-Pacific region to remain a viable power in the 21st century.

The global genealogy, biography and political persona of the first African-American president, whose father was from Kenya and mother from Kansas has inspired many followers. Yet they seem frustrated and somewhat disappointed with his prospects for the future. They all demanded to know what is going to happen in next year's United States presidential election.

Has he done enough to keep the progressive, younger and independent voters loyal to his party? Will his "cool" and compromising style of leadership endear him only to a shrinking pool of voters? Does he need to be more aggressive or "emotive" with the opposition to win the next election? These are some of the questions I have repeatedly encountered as I learned in the past three weeks while lecturing in European capitals.

Since Obama is "the first global president" of the US, he remains more popular abroad than at home, certainly compared to George W Bush and maybe even Bill Clinton. Based on the latest non-partisan polling data, his only consolation seems to be that the Republican opposition remains very fluid and uncertain about its nominee. While Mitt Romney remains the most viable candidate to take on Obama in November 2012 (both remain statistically tied), the Republicans seem to be "speed-dating" every other candidate in the primaries for approximately a month and then "dumping" them.

The landmark election of Obama in 2008, which was brought about by a strong coalition of ethnic voters to capture support from 54% of the voting public and coincided with the 200th anniversary of Abraham Lincoln's birth, not only uplifted America, but it elevated the spirits of the world. For every citizen on the planet touched by American democracy and power, his re-election might have far-reaching implications.

As the 21st century progresses open questions resound about how America will adjust to an emerging multi-polar world where it may no longer be the sole policeman, and the role of Asia with China as the leading protagonist. There are concerns too over how the United States will respond as Pax-Americana, the geopolitical order that have kept European and North Atlantic Treaty Organization powers dominant for the past 50 years, diminishes.

It is within this global framework that Obama's landmark election in 2008 and potentially in 2012 represents a leading indicator of the sweeping changes that are already underway geopolitically. Obama's Pacific upbringing, globe-trotting childhood and adolescence, and coming of age after the fall of the Berlin Wall has a synergy with the changing times and in many ways prepared him to help America transition into the global age.

The economic center of gravity has shifted to the East, while economic malaise knows no end in European capitals. It is also within this "turn of the century" global gyration that India's emerging role as a leading Asian power and the largest populist democracy in the world comes into focus. As India has embraced Westernization anew through liberalization and market reforms begun 1991, the West is rediscovering the East through Chinese goods, outsourcing, yoga, vegetarianism, curry and chai latte.

As East becomes more materialistic, the West is becoming more spiritual. Rudyard Kipling's Victorian ballad seems to have new resonance:

OH, East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet,
Till Earth and Sky stand presently at God's great Judgment Seat;
But there is neither East nor West, Border, nor Breed, nor Birth,
When two strong men stand face to face, tho' they come from the ends of the earth!

As Joseph Nye of Harvard said recently, "Asia's return to the center of world affairs is the great power shift of the twenty-first century ... By 2050, Asia will be well on its way back to where it was 300 years earlier."

America's strategic turn towards India, hosting the first state dinner, the early presidential visit to India, and Obama's close relationship with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signals the rise of India as a major power. Obama said as much in his address to the Indian parliament in November 2010 when he declared, "And I am mindful that I might not be standing before you today, as President of the United States, had it not been for Gandhi and the message he shared with America and the world."

India's relative growth is keeping pace with China's, and like the US, India is a thriving democracy. These factors provide a rationale for an alliance with India as a counterbalance to China's growing influence. During his visit to India, Aroon Purie, the senior editor of India Today told Obama, "I hope you get more credit for this trip than you get for all the good work you have done in America." To which Obama replied, "You know, you can never be a prophet in your own land."

As US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced recently, America's foreign policy is pivoting towards Asia's growing influence in the world. This will likely become a campaign theme: America must innovate in order to keep pace with the growth in China and other emerging economies. Innovators at a recent technology summit in the US argued that the best thing America has going for it is the history of immigration and spirit of entrepreneurship.

Added to that advantage, multiculturalism seems to have hit a road block in Europe, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron said recently. It seems to be thriving in Silicon Valley, major technology hub in the US, heavily represented by Asian immigrants including many Indian Americans. Several prominent Indian Americans are fund-raising for Obama: Azita Raji, Shefali Razdan Duggal, Deven Parekh and Kavita Tankha. A record number of Indian Americans also ran for political office in 2010 with several key wins.

Vinod Khosla, an energy investor and a co-founder of Sun Microsystems said recently, he believes in the "black swan theory of innovation", where improbable rare events can change the marketplace like the development of Internet and search engines like Google. While Obama came into office as an Internet president because of the grassroots organization and fund raising he did online, it is difficult to predict what will happen in the next election.

However, there is no doubt that Obama is a landmark figure for the diverse genealogy, biography and family history he brought to the White House. He has tried to unleash several key progressive tools and technologies to renew the American dream, but ultimately Obama's re-election may hinge on key economic indicators heading into the general election: unemployment (8.6% and declining), consumer confidence (56% and rising), market uncertainty (however you define it), and the Republican Party's ability to select a viable candidate (seems fluid).

Hope is eternal, but change is gradual. It is likely that Obama will emerge as the cautious pragmatist and a populist in this election cycle, rather than the idealistic visionary who spoke of transforming the world....

*** Obama a member of a "New Age" cult a pure product of criminal the CIA....

Barack Obama is not a secret Muslim but he may be a secret Subud sect member....and very Jewish as well....

The right-wing and pro-Israel crowd is fond of calling President Obama a “secret Muslim.” However, given his Indonesian roots and their connections in Java, Obama may be a member of a small and secretive sect known as Subud. You say you’ve never heard of it? Neither had we until it came to our attention that Obama and his mother Ann Dunham Soetoro’s and his step-sister Maya Soetoro-Ng’s paths have crossed with the sect, some would call it a cult, numerous times.

Mysticism in Indonesia has manifested itself in the Javanese “Subud” movement, named for its founder Muhammad Subuh Sumohadiwidjojo, also known as “Bapak” or “Pak Subuh,” a charismatic religious figure who believed individuals can be uplifted by spiritual energy from a higher power in an exercise known as the latihan. Subud, which has an international following and became popular in Indonesia and internationally following World War II, attracted as adherents a few Western intelligence operatives assigned to Indonesia, including members of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service, the New Zealand Secret Intelligence Service, Britain’s MI-6, and a few CIA operatives, as well. It is not known whether Ann Soetoro, an expert in Javanese culture and peoples, was an actual member of the Java-based sect but her connections to the sect are clear.

Ann Soetoro maintained close connections with Subud and her own religious beliefs match those of the Subud to a tee. Janny Scott’s book, A Singular Woman, provides a unique insight into Ann’s religious beliefs, which tend more to Subud beliefs than her own Unitarian upbringing. First, Ann Soetoro encountered Subuh members while working for the Institute for Management and Education and Development, while under a grant from the Ford Foundation, in 1971. She hired members of the Subud, who lived in the International Subud Center compound in the Jakarta suburb of Cilandak, to teach intensive courses in business English. Second, given her residence in the north coast Java port city of Semarang, Bapak’s hometown and base, from 1978 to 1980, it is inconceivable that Ann Soetoro was unaware of Bapak and his movement. Third, Bapak and his Subud followers were well-entrenched at the East-West Center at the University of Hawaii, where Ann Dunham Soetoro met her Kenyan and Indonesian husbands.

Even Kenya was not unknown to Subud missionaries. Subud conversion missions set out from Indonesia in the early 1960s to Kenya, Swaziland, and Northern and Southern Rhodesia.

Before he died in 1987, Bapak toured the world spreading his message of mystical spiritualism. The one goal Bapak wanted to achieve was to create a “Bank for Mankind.” Although Bapak died before he could achieve his goal, much of Ann Soetoro’s micro-financing programs achieved part of the goal of banking services for women and the poor. In fact, Subud counted a number of international aid workers and employees of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank – where Obama’s mother worked -- among its members, or “helper,” as the Subud prefers to call its international assistance workers. These Subud assistance workers were particularly found working in Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand but more recently are found in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Latin America. Subud also attracted a number of Australians and New Zealanders to its ranks and Subud centers sprang up in the major cities of the two countries.

Bapak was not only interested in helping the poor but became a wealthy man himself in the process of bringing new adherents into the fold. Bapak owned a construction company that built a hotel and the S. Widjojo office building in Jakarta.

Some of its critics have labeled Subud a cult. The sect attracted a number of 60s-era “hippie generation” adherents, including Jim McGuinn, lead singer and guitarist for The Byrds. It was Bapak who told McGuinn to change his name from Jim to Roger because it would “vibrate” better with the universe.

Subud members often change their names while transitioning into full membership status. New names are assigned by Subud leaders. In Ann Dunham Soetoro’s 1968 U.S. passport renewal application, Barack H. Obama, Jr.’s name is listed as Barack Hussein Obama (Soebarkah). There is a possibility that if Ann Soetoro was a Subud member, she changed the name of her son in accordance with Subud teachings. Ann also changed the spelling of her own last name from Soetoro to Sutoro.

Is Bapak, Barack's spiritual guru?

Other critics have pointed to the connections between the Subud movement and CIA mind control operations, especially those directed at children and others that administer sodium pentothal to unwitting subjects. Subud maintains a religious compound known as Skymont on the banks of the Shenandoah River near Front Royal, Virginia. In the lead-up to the CIA coup in Indonesia, the PKI accused Subud of being a CIA front. The chairman of Subud Indonesia before the coup was Dr. Achmad Subardjo, the first Foreign Minister of Indonesia. One of those who distrusted Subud was Dr. Subandrio, Sukarno’s Foreign Minister, who banned Subud meetings in the weeks leading up to the coup.

Bapak issued orders to his non-Indonesian members to leave the country before the coup and told foreign members abroad not to enter the country. When Suharto ousted Sukarno and declared the PKI illegal, Bapak celebrated the change, proclaiming that Indonesia was free of the Communists.

Subandrio was sentenced to death after the coup but the sentence was reduced to life imprisonment. He was released from prison in 1995 and died in 2004. Bapak’s followers believed that their religious icon could bring death upon his enemies. Not only was Subandrio sentenced to death after he quarreled with Bapak but in 1959, the Prime Minister of Ceylon, Solomon Bandaranaike, told Bapak he had to leave the island nation within 48-hours because he was thought to be a threat to the state religion of Buddhism. Shortly afterwards, Bandaranaike was shot to death by a Buddhist monk. Some suspected the CIA as being behind the assassination. Bandaranaike had steered Ceylon away from the West, ejecting Britain from its military bases in the country and forming a political pact with the Communist Party.

There were reports that some children members of the sect were also in the horrific sex abuse case at the McMartin pre-school day care center in Manhattan Beach, California in the 1980s. The McMartin pedophile ring was linked to members of the military, Los Angeles Police Department, and the U.S. intelligence community.

Ann Soetoro developed a close friendship with one of the Subud members she hired to teach English at the management institute. He was Mohammad Mansur Medeiros, originally from Fall River, Massachusetts and Harvard University, who immersed himself so deeply into Javanese culture and religion that he became known as “Mansur Java.” Mansur Java died in 2007.

Although there are only some 10,000 Subud members in the world, Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie, a friend of Ann Dunham at the University of Hawaii, appointed as the Hawaii Director of Health, sociologist and public health specialist Loretta Fuddy, a former chair of the Bellevue, Washington-based Subud USA from 2006 to 2008. In her position as Health Director, Fuddy had oversight over President Obama’s Hawaii birth records, which were the subject of intense controversy.